Details
Raju Vernekar
Vernekar.raj@gmail.com
“Prime Minister Narendra Modi while addressing the nation on the occasion of India’s 74th Independence Day, on Saturday, 15 the August, from the historic Red Fort in New Delhi, focused on the themes of “”Aatma Nirbhar Bharat (self-reliant India)””.”
“In the one-hour 26-minute speech, he also dwelt upon the theme “”Vocal for local”” and “”Make in India to Make for World””. He also paid tribute to those on the frontlines of the fight against the corona virus and declared that India had a roadmap ready for the production and distribution of three COVID-19 vaccines that are at various stages of testing.”
“Seventy-three years of independence from the British rule was celebrated in a subdued manner due to the corona virus crisis. Over 1,500 “corona virus winners” who recovered from the disease, were present at the function in a symbol of the citizens’ determination to fight the pandemic and emerge winners.”
“Government has already declared a ban on the import of nearly 101 armaments, weapons and has decided to go in for domestic defence production. However on the occasion of the Independence Day, it is imperative to take stock of the existing situation prevailing in the largest democracy in the world.”
“Atmnirbhar” Package
“As a reprieve to the economy, reeling under the pandemic, the Government has already announced Rs. 21 lakh crore package. But according to economists, although the package is big, the actual fiscal hit will only be around Rs 2 lakh crore to Rs. 2.5 lakh crore, which is around 1 to 1.2 per cent of GDP.”
GDP
“Even though the PM had aimed at a 5 trillion dollar economy by 2024, the task seems to be difficult. The India’s economy was expected to grow at 5%, however the GDP came down to 4.5 per cent in quarter II of 2019-2020. Even before the pandemic hit the country, it grew only at 4.2% in March and finally 3.1% in the quarter that ended with the lockdown, due to a lack of investment. Now GDP is expected to shrink up to 5.1 2% in the fiscal year 2020-21, as against earlier estimate of 6.2 GDP by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).”
FDI
“With relaxation of norms in single-brand retail trading, coal mining and digital media, the government was working on a plan to bring in $100 billion FDI. According to official data, FDI inflows to India raised up to $ 49.97 billion in 2019-2020. But as per the UNCTAD, the FDI into India may decline sharply this year due to the impact of the pandemic and supply chain disruptions.”
Indian Rupee
Indian rupee which has gone through bouts of volatility has been hovering around 75 against US dollar. A surge in global oil prices has been pushing the Indian rupee lower. As of now there does not seem to be a drastic change in this situation.
RBI’s way forward
“According to RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, despite the impact of pandemic in our daily lives, the financial system of the country, including all the payment systems and financial markets, are functioning without any hindrance and the Indian economy has started showing signs of resumption to normalcy. But it is uncertain when supply chains will be restored fully. As such the reallocation of factors of productions within the economy is the need of the hour, for rebalancing and emergence of new growth drivers.”
Loss of jobs
“Due to the prolonged lock downs, over 12 crore people lost the jobs with an estimated wage loss of Rs 33,800 crore, as per the survey by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE). India’s overall unemployment rate in July 2020 stood at 7.43 per cent. There is a cause for concern in some states which are facing higher unemployment. The unemployment rates are: Bihar (12.19 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (8.35 per cent), Rajasthan (15.23 per cent), Telangana (9.05 per cent) and Delhi (20.3 per cent). They are markedly higher than the national average.”
“Nearly 125 million households applied for work under the government MGNREGA scheme, between April and July, compared to 90 million households during the same period last year, signifying a rise of nearly 40 per cent. While further investment into the scheme is warranted, the fact is the employment opportunities are not equally distributed and fewer opportunities exists in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, two of India’s most populous states.”
Poverty
“As per the paper presented earlier to the National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER), by three authors, the number of poor came down to 8.4 crore, (from 27 crore in 2011), due to high growth rate, MGNREGA, Direct Benefit Transfers, PM Kisan Yojana, LPG subsidy and other measures. But now the lock down may exacerbate India’s poverty figures. A United Nations University study estimates that over 10 crore Indians could fall below the World Bank-determined poverty line of $ 3.2 (Rs 239 a day).”
Food grains
“As per the figures released by the Union agriculture ministry, the target of total food grains production for 2020-21 is around 298.3 MT, comprising 149.92 MT in kharif season and 148.4 MT during rabi. In 2019-20, production was 291.95 MT, against the target of 291.1 MT.”
Population
“The country’s population is estimated at 138 crore, equivalent to 17.7% of the total world population. 35.0 % of the population is urban, while 65 per cent population is located in rural area. The total land area is 2,973,190 Km2 (1,147,955 sq. miles) and the population density is 464 per Km 2 (1,202 people per mi 2).”
Literacy
“The overall literacy rate is 64.8 % in the country, comprising the male literacy rate at 75.3%, and the female literacy rate at 53.7%, showing a gap of 21.6 percentage points between the sexes at the national level. The gap is more in the rural areas, while higher literacy rate has been recorded both for men and women in the urban areas. Kerala, Lakshadweep, Mizoram, Goa and Chandigarh occupy the top five positions in literacy, while Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Bihar are at bottom.”
“Amid Covid-19 pandemic, the economy is slowly limping back to normalcy. India is expected to become one of the most powerful countries in the time to come. Let us hope that we become super power at least by 2030.”
